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Grand Theft Auto VI is tracking to be one of the biggest releases in video game history, with its upcoming launch already making waves in the industry.
In a recent conversation with Xavier from IG Markets’ Dealing Desk, we spoke about GTA’s flow-on effects on the games industry and the big business behind it.
“All eyes are on GTA VI,” Xavier said. “It’s got an estimated budget of between $1 billion and $2 billion. It’s probably going to be a success for sure, but how big of a success is the question that’s in the air.”
Of course, Rockstar has done this before. GTA is Take-Two’s poster child. “Take-Two Interactive, the publishers of GTA VI, back when GTA 5 came out, their stock was trading at $17 and now it’s at $247,” Xavier said. “So there’s a lot of expectations on GTA VI.”
“For comparison, that’s up 1,300%, whereas the regular NASDAQ 100, which is a collection of US tech stocks, is up 831%. Gaming has really, really grown.”
Much of GTA’s success is down to its post-launch campaign. “Once they released GTA Online, they realised how much of a cash cow that was and how much people wanted to play it,” Xavier said. “They switched to this more drip-feed model of slowly releasing new heists, new cars and keeping people online longer — and people still play GTA 5 to this day.” Let’s not forget how long it sat in the top ten of weekly best-seller charts.
The live-service model has become a staple of the industry since. “The landscape of gaming has changed so much where it’s no longer about releasing a game, people playing it and it being done. Now you’re releasing a service, and they’re going to want to support GTA VI for years, if not decades.” Xavier expects GTA VI to follow the same pattern: “I think GTA VI is going to be very similar, where we’re going to have the initial release, but then from there it’s just going to keep building and creating this online world that people are going to be obsessed with for years.”
However, GTA VI is releasing at a time where the industry is very different to what it was when GTA V launched. Consumers are increasingly price sensitive and rising costs in the supply chain aren’t helping. Component prices have climbed sharply through 2026, driven by demand from AI companies, and the costs associated with gaming have risen sharply. Combined with tighter household budgets, gamers are feeling the pinch.
The concern amongst other publishers is that GTA VI will suck up all the oxygen. “Companies have given a wide berth to GTA. November is basically just the GTA month. Nothing much else is coming out,” Xavier said. Release dates have moved around it in both directions: “With a game of this size, it’s going to be one where everyone wants to give it its own space. Games have been delayed, games have been brought forward to avoid conflicting release schedules.” The concern extends beyond launch week, too, given how GTA Online played out. “We’ll probably see games struggling to pull back those audiences because you might go, ‘Why would I buy this new game when GTA VI just dropped new online content?'”
There may be an upside though. The gaming industry has been struggling with sales below expectations and widespread layoffs. A release of this scale may help pull people back into gaming should rising costs not deter them. “You’ve got more people buying consoles, which should lead to more people buying games,” Xavier said. For an industry in need of a win, GTA VI could inject some confidence, perhaps lifting the market as a whole rather than just Take-Two.
For those following how this plays out, IG Markets’ app provides access to overseas-listed stocks, including US names like Take-Two, alongside charting tools, price alerts and other market data. “For a lot of this gaming stuff, you do have to look overseas to the US or Japan,” Xavier said. “Thankfully, as technology has evolved, we’ve got the new IG Markets app, which offers these overseas stocks available to trade.”
Whether you’re keeping an eye on the markets or exploring new opportunities, IG Markets gives you the tools to do it your way. Download the app today.
Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Share trading services by IG Australia Pty Ltd (AFSL 515106). Crypto services by IG Digital Assets Australia Pty Ltd.